Millions of Somalis are at risk of falling deeper into hunger as below-average rainfall between October and December 2024 linked to the La Nina weather phenomenon threatens to reverse recent gains in food security. United Nations agencies are warning that without urgent funding for humanitarian action, the country – which in late 2022 was pushed to the brink of famine – could once again be plunged into a hunger crisis caused by severe drought.

The warning from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) follows the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis which reveals that 3.6 million people (19 per cent of the population) are currently experiencing crisis-levels of hunger in Somalia (IPC3+). 

This is expected to rise to 4.4 million between October and December this year when below average Deyr rains are anticipated. Additionally, 1.6 million children under the age of five are at risk of acute malnutrition until July 2025, including 403,000 likely to suffer from severe malnutrition.

“We are at a pivotal moment and must sound the alarm. Without swift action, Somalia risks slipping back into the hunger crisis that nearly led to famine in recent years,” said Elkhidir Daloum, WFP’s Country Director in Somalia. “Despite some progress in food security, many families are still at risk of hunger as food prices surge and crop yields dwindle. Our focus must be on providing immediate assistance while fostering long-term resilience. At WFP, we are ramping up efforts to protect communities before disaster strikes. By combining proactive strategies with early recovery initiatives, climate-smart solutions, and social protection measures, we can break the cycle of vulnerability.”

The IPC findings reflect global weather forecasts which indicate an 80 per cent probability of La Niña conditions, which could lead to drought in Somalia. The forecasts indicate the likelihood of a below-normal Deyr rainy season and above-normal temperatures which could cause severe soil moisture loss, poor crop and fodder productivity, and worsen food insecurity in vulnerable communities.

FAO Somalia Country Representative, Etienne Peterschmitt, stressed the urgency of early action given the La Niña forecast and the potential for drought. “La Niña’s impact on Somalia’s agrifood systems could be devastating, with degraded soil and water resources, disrupted planting seasons, and reduced crop yields. The loss of livestock will further threaten rural livelihoods, pushing millions deeper into hunger and poverty. Anticipatory action is essential to mitigate these impacts and prevent a worsening food security crisis.” 

“High levels of acute malnutrition among children are widespread and persistent. We are likely to see water sources depleting and malnutrition among children rising,” said UNICEF Representative Wafaa Saeed. “While the number of acutely malnourished children has reduced and more people had access to safe water, these gains are fragile, and risk being eroded. We need to sustain provision of life-saving assistance while simultaneously scaling up investments in resilience so that communities can respond and recover positively to recurrent shocks.”

FAO, OCHA, UNICEF and WFP are deeply concerned about the grim food security outlook for the next three months and beyond. Amid funding gaps, unfavorable rainfall forecasts, ongoing security challenges, and rising food prices, the agencies are urgently calling for additional funding to expand humanitarian and resilience programmes to mitigate the impacts of the expected drought in Somalia. As of 24 September, the 2024 Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan was only 37 per cent funded.