As global leaders convene for the COP29 climate conference today, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) warns of increasing climate-driven disasters that are disproportionately impacting Africa. Of the 17 climate-vulnerable, conflict-affected countries identified by the IRC, 12 of them are in Africa. The IRC urges global leaders and decision makers at COP29 to utilise anticipatory tools and local expertise to forecast disasters and implement proactive, early-response measures.

In the last five years, millions of people across the continent have been affected by climate shocks like severe flooding and prolonged periods of drought, intensifying crises in regions already burdened by conflict and instability. Flooding across various regions in Africa has led to widespread displacement, severe food insecurity, and alarming public health crises.  These extreme weather events are a stark reminder that the climate crisis is no longer a future threat — it is a present-day emergency that requires urgent global action. The agricultural sector in several countries, already weakened by years of conflict and insecurity, is struggling to recover as floodwaters destroy crops and overwhelm farmland.

Chad remains the hardest-hit country in Africa, with floods impacting 1.9 million people this year. Across Central Africa, more than 450,000 people in Cameroon have also been affected, while El Niño-driven rains in Burundi have displaced 200,000 people. The floods have devastated homes and livelihood, worsened public health, and heightened the spread of waterborne diseases across the region.

Across West Africa, countries like Mali, Niger, and Nigeria have witnessed some of the worst floods in decades. More than 3 million people in West Africa are struggling to cope with the aftermath of these floods, which have destroyed crops, damaged homes, and contributed to sharp increases in cholera, malaria, and malnutrition. The effects of climate change, compounded with armed conflict, is driving unprecedented levels of humanitarian need, displacement and food insecurity in the region.

In East Africa, the humanitarian situation is equally dire. This year, 1.3 million people in South Sudan have been affected by ongoing floods, with a quarter of them displaced from their homes. This year’s powerful El Niño has brought relentless torrential rains across the region, causing catastrophic flooding, deadly landslides, widespread infrastructure damage, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands across Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda. These torrential rains followed one of East Africa's most prolonged and severe droughts in recent memory, which had affected over 35 million people by the close of 2022.

Working alongside partners and government agencies in East, West and Central Africa, the IRC is helping affected communities reach safety and access essential support, including cash, shelter, improved sanitation, and clean water, with a focus on reaching the most vulnerable. Mobile clinics have been deployed in Niger to deliver primary healthcare and nutrition support, particularly in remote areas. Efforts are also underway to support economic recovery, strengthening climate resilience and development in the aftermath of these disasters.

Bob Kitchen, Vice President for Emergencies at the IRC, said: 

Anticipatory action is crucial to how we respond to climate shocks. It enables us to provide earlier and targeted assistance to help populations caught up in the vicious cycle of poverty, conflict, and displacement- challenges exacerbated by climate change. The IRC urges donors to commit 5% of humanitarian budgets to anticipatory actions.

In Nigeria, the IRC supported nearly 4,000 clients in Adamawa State with cash transfers, early warning systems, and community training, reaching over 10,000 individuals through mobile alerts and community-based messaging to help prepare for anticipated floods this year. Building on this success, the IRC in Somalia is now preparing targeted, preemptive actions to support communities expected to face climate-driven crises resulting from La Niña.

Ahead of COP29, the IRC calls for strengthened climate action for fragile and conflict affected states, including anticipatory action, particularly for crisis-affected regions on the climate frontlines. Key actions include:

• Funding Anticipatory Action: Establish robust funding mechanisms to support anticipatory climate responses to preemptive action. With support in the form of cash and other resources in advance, communities are empowered to make a significant difference in how quickly they recover from disaster, while simultaneously building climate resilience in the future. 
• Invest in Community-based Risk Reduction: Invest in disaster-risk reduction through community-driven early-warning systems and predictive tools that trigger timely financial aid ahead of foreseeable climate events.
• Flexible, Multi-year Climate Financing: Ensure financing is adaptable, multi-year, and flexible, allowing for a proactive, rather than reactive, response. Donors should shift from a “government-first” to a “people-first” model of financing by creating more opportunities to work with non-sovereign delivery partners who often have the greatest access and capacity in conflict settings to communities in need.