The African Association of Energy Journalists and Publishers, AJERAP, (https://AJERAP.org), has predicted global oil prices to hover between $70 and $90 per barrel in the second half (July – December) of 2024.

The forecast forms part of AJERAP’s report - AFRICA ENERGY OUTLOOK SECOND HALF 2024 - scheduled for unveiling to the African and global community during a webinar at 10 am West Central African Time, on Thursday, August 8, 2024.

The event has Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus in Petroleum Economics & Policy, Executive Director, Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Abuja, Nigeria; Mr. Haddison Etchuo, Managing Director, IBC    Consultancy, United Kingdom; Mrs Cany Job, Director of Exploration and Production, Gambia National Oil Corporation, The Gambia; Mr. NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber and Mr. Robert Mugabi, Operator/HSE Contractor, Uganda, as panelists.

It will be moderated by Marcia Zali, a South African journalist while the Outlook will be reviewed by Sanna Camara, another journalist based in The Gambia.

Meanwhile, the Outlook, stated: “The prices of many crudes hovered at more than $80 per barrel in the global oil market during the first half (January – June) of 2024. In the second half of the year (July - December), the oil market will be unstable with prices hovering between $70 and $90 per barrel, due to dynamics, especially the forces of demand and supply as well as unexpected developments around the world.

“The price level will be sufficient to meet the budget 2024 targets of many African nations, including Nigeria, the continent’s leading producer that had budgeted to produce 1.70 million barrels per day and earn $77.96 per barrel in 2024. Other African-producing nations, including Angola, Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Ghana also stand to earn sufficient foreign exchange from oil exports as the world economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 remain at 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively.

“But unforeseen circumstances, especially disruptions in operations that could disrupt production, export and prices remain high, especially in Libya and Nigeria’s Niger Delta. This will continue to be fueled by communal disturbances, pipeline vandalism, oil theft, oil spillage and illegal refining, which are still the sad realities in Africa. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, working with non-OPEC producing countries and other stakeholders appears technically ready to initiate options that would restore global market stability.”

Also, the Outlook, which expects much exploration and production activities in Africa in the second half of 2024, stated: “Oil and gas exploration and production will continue in many African nations because of their need to actualize energy security as well as generate foreign exchange to fund development projects and programmes.

“Many exploration and production activities should be expected in many nations, especially Angola, Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, The Gambia, Senegal, Uganda, Tanzania and Nigeria. The developed Western world will continue to condemn Africa’s commitment to developing its oil and gas potential, mainly through the much-politicized energy transition. African countries that heavily rely on natural gas as their transition fuel will execute their energy transition programmes during the period.

“However, lack of adequate funds remains a major constraint as global financial institutions and their partners are opposed to the continued funding of fossil fuel projects. This and other constraints could reduce the number of rigs deployed for operations in many African oil and gas countries in the second half of 2024.”

For registration and participation, use this link: https://apo-opa.co/4dy0JS7

AJERAP was established to promote accurate reportage and analysis of the energy and related sectors from an African perspective.

This is expected to assist in achieving not only the ‘just energy transition’ for Africa but also energy security in the continent, which is still struggling to overcome its energy poverty.

The association is committed to promoting professional development and cooperation among its members while encouraging investment, local content development and sustainability in Africa and beyond.